Recent studies of homelessness in California, they say, have shown most homeless people in the state lived here before becoming homeless. While policies that criminalize homeless people do uproot them, Donovan said, it is locally and temporarily — and with negative consequences, not positive ones. Connecting homeless people with services is a great solution, he said, but citations and arrests can make that process more challenging.

"A criminal record makes it harder to find and keep housing, it makes it harder to find and keep a job, it makes it harder to reconnect with family and community members who a person experiencing homelessness may be estranged from," Donovan said.

If the Supreme Court enables more places to ramp up encampment sweeps, citations, arrests and other penalties, he said, there's a risk of further spiraling in cities such as L.A. and San Francisco.

"The level of homelessness in a community doesn't actually go down," he said. "If anything, it goes up."

Clarity or crackdown?

When Newsom urged the Supreme Court to take the Grants Pass case last year, he said it was a chance for the conservative court to "correct course" for the entire American West.

The more liberal 9th Circuit, Newsom said, had "tied the hands of state and local governments" by issuing vague rulings that invited litigation from homeless people and their advocates every time California jurisdictions tried to address the problem.

"While I agree with the basic principle that a city shouldn't criminalize homeless individuals for sleeping outside when they have nowhere else to go within that city's boundaries," Newsom said, "courts continue to reach well beyond that narrow limit to block any number of reasonable efforts to protect homeless individuals and the broader public from the harms of uncontrolled encampments."

The city attorneys for both L.A. and San Francisco carved out similar positions in interviews with The Times after Monday's oral arguments.

Feldstein Soto said she and other leaders in big California cities are "all pretty aligned that the answer isn't to throw a lot of people in jail. That's not a solution to what is a human tragedy."

Instead, she said, they are asking the high court for guidance on the sort of "time, place and manner" restrictions that are allowed under the 8th Amendment — yes to blankets but no to fires, for instance — so they can move forward without having to constantly fend off lawsuits.

"If what they do is establish some fundamental principles, we can make sure that our laws comply with whatever principles they establish," she said.

San Francisco City Atty. David Chiu said he hopes the high court "strikes the right balance" in allowing cities to enact reasonable restrictions without giving them a free pass to throw homeless people behind bars. He said San Francisco has already invested billions in shelter beds and other resources for homeless people, and the Supreme Court's decision — whatever it is — won't change its commitments.

"We hope that there is support for the notion that cities need to have more flexibility to address the crisis on the streets, but providing us with flexibility is different from letting cities completely off the hook in addressing what is happening," Chiu said.

Progressive critics said they are extremely worried those leaders aren't being truthful about their plans ahead.

The 9th Circuit has already allowed for reasonable restrictions on when, where and how homeless people can sleep or build protective structures, the critics said. In fact, both L.A. and San Francisco already have such policies in place — and actively enforce them.

Just as California leaders blamed the 9th Circuit for tying their hands, the critics believe they will point to a Supreme Court decision in favor of Grants Pass as a new legal mandate for harsher crackdowns.

John Do, a senior attorney with the American Civil Liberties Union of Northern California who watched the Supreme Court arguments in person — after sleeping in line outside overnight with a blanket, he noted — represents a coalition of homeless organizations suing San Francisco over its homeless policies in a separate case.

Do, whose case has been stayed pending a Grants Pass decision expected in late June, said every jurisdiction in the country could potentially have a "green light" to arrest homeless people for sleeping in public — and he has no doubt California cities will take the opportunity.

"What we will have is essentially an arms race to the bottom of who can make their jurisdiction the most punitive, the most uncomfortable, with the most cruel and unusual punishments possible," he said.

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