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John Romano: The strange but true tale of dueling polls in the Rays stadium saga

John Romano, Tampa Bay Times on

Published in Baseball

The verdict?

One poll was far more reliable than the other.

“When I looked at the League of Women Voters survey, my first thought was, ‘Oh, this is really problematic,’ ” said Stephen Neely, an associate professor in the School of Public Affairs at the University of South Florida.

When it comes to assessing polls, Neely says he looks for evidence that responses come from a sample size that accurately reflects the population being questioned. That means the proper ratio of gender, age, race, partisan affiliation and income level.

Another critical component is the phrasing of questions. They should be asked in a non-leading, neutral manner.

The League of Women Voters survey falls short in both categories.

 

The first question, for instance, goes like this:

Neither the city nor the county has approved the Rays-Hines deal yet. The city and county should negotiate a better deal than the current term sheet that costs taxpayers $1.9 billion.

“The questions are very much like, ‘Here’s our opinion, don’t you agree?’ ” Neely said. “It’s worded in ways that are very problematic. Should the city and county get a better deal? That’s like asking, ‘Would you like to negotiate a better deal on your rent?’ Well, of course I would. But when it comes due, I’m still going to pay my rent.

“The questions are asked in a way that are almost primed to elicit a certain response.”

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