Not to mention, there’s not a lot of nuance in the questions. The term sheets for the stadium financing call for the county and city to each contribute $300 million, with the Rays paying $700 million and any cost overruns. The $1.9 billion in the survey question is an estimate of a host of other factors, including interest payments. That’s like buying a $400,000 house but claiming you spent $2 million because that’s what it will cost over the life of the mortgage.

The other concern with the poll, which the League of Women Voters acknowledged in a press release was not scientific, is that it used an opt-in method. The League sent emails to 36,461 registered voters in Pinellas and got 779 responses. It didn’t account for any appropriate demographic representation. The concern is that only people with unusually strong feelings — one way or the other — might respond.

As for the Rays poll, which was conducted over the phone and included 412 responses in St. Pete and 500 in Pinellas County and generally put support for the stadium deal in the 75% range, Neely said it was done by a reputable company (Pathfinder Opinion Research) and seemed to follow accepted industry standards.

Neely had some questions about the demographics, which the pollster later provided, showing an accurate representation of the population.

I did not write much about the Rays poll when I first got a copy a few weeks ago, and I’m not going to recreate it here. Why? Because as faithful as the polling company was in trying to elicit accurate responses, I think the issue is far too complex to be whittled down to a handful of broad questions.

As a general barometer, I think the Rays poll is accurate that most residents see the value of a Major League Baseball team even if they are not fans.

But the ultimate decision has to take more into account than polls and surveys. It needs to include the reality of the current use agreement at Tropicana Field that puts the team in control of the land, and development revenues, until 2027. It needs to include the reality of the proposals the city received from developers in separate RFP processes in 2021 and 2022. It needs to include the advantages of partnering with a global firm such as Hines. It needs to include the hopes/concerns of residents of the Historic Gas Plant District.

It needs to have the type of conversations that the City Council is planning for workshops in May.

It does not need hype or hysteria.

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